CBAM and the Western Balkans

What CBAM does to a megawatt-hour leaving the region

Since 1 January 2026, electricity imported into the EU from a third country owes a carbon charge. The importer buys CBAM certificates equal to the default national emission factor times the quarterly average EU ETS auction price — unless they can prove actual emissions under a physical PPA, which almost nobody can yet because accredited verifiers are not expected until late 2026. The default factors are computed on the fossil part of each country's mix, so a hydro system (Albania) is charged nothing and a lignite system (Bosnia, Serbia) is charged more than the wholesale price itself.

It is a wedge on the spread, not a tax on generation

A Serbian exporter selling into Hungary pays nothing at home. The Hungarian importer pays the certificate. That cost has to come out of the day-ahead spread, so the corridor only clears when the EU zone is expensive enough to absorb it — or when someone is transiting through to a third buyer (Ukraine, in the current data).

Default factors, not the actual plant, set the price

A wind farm in North Macedonia still carries the 0.887 tCO₂/MWh national default unless it can document actual values. The pending revision of the regulation would switch defaults to the whole mix (not just fossil) and drop the "no congestion" test for actual values, possibly retroactively to 1 January 2026.

Q2 is the second quarter of the definitive period

Q1 2026 mixed the start of CBAM with an exceptional hydro surplus, so the two cannot be separated. Q2 is the first interval where hydrology had normalised and the region was back to being a seasonal net importer. The numbers below should be read as emerging patterns, not as a clean CBAM effect.